Everyone has an opinion... that's okay, this is AMERICA!!
I'm sad to say that to one degree or another, everyone is guessing. There were those that said early 09 was when it was turning around. That was said in late fall of 07, just after the crisis of August 6th impacted everyone.
The sky is NOT falling, we will adapt and be better than before. I believe this is the time when people willing to take a risk will be industry leaders in the future.
When a business cycle starts to falter, the media start wringing their hands. Then big businesses do, freelancers, entrepreneurs and soon everyone is keening.
People and organizations that have no real financial stress start to pull back, "because it's prudent." It's almost as if everyone is just waiting for an excuse to do less. In fact, they are.Growth is frightening for a lot of people. It brings change and the opportunity for public failure, they find an excuse. We decide to do it later, or not at all.
But uncertain times, frozen liquidity, political change and poor astrological forecasts all lead to less competition, more available talent and a do-or-die attitude that causes real change to happen.
"Houses cost too much for the mass market. Today's average price is out of reach for two-thirds of all buyers." ~Science Digest 1948 (average price at the time: $8,000)
"The era of easy profits in real estate may be drawing to a close." ~Money Magazine 1981
"Most economists agree...a home will become little more than a roof and a tax deduction, certainly not the lucrative investment it once was..." ~Money Magazine 1986
"Financial planners agree that houses will continue to be a poor investment." ~Kiplinger's Personal Financial Magazine 1993

